THE CENSUS IS HEATING UP

Senator  David Vitter ( D-LA) has introduced a resolution to force the that would force the Census Bureau  to only count US citizens when  they reapportion House seats among the states in 2010.  If adopted, the allocation of Congressional seats among the states would be radically different. 

The current procedure is to count all residents regardless of legal status (see blog of 10/13) and the courts upheld that procedure in 1980. If all residents are counted it is anticipated that Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Nevada and Utah would gain one seat each and Texas would get three. Those 8 seats would come from Iowa, Louisiana, Massachusetts, Michigan, New Jersey, New York, Ohio and Pennsylvania.

Given that traditional migration patterns have changed dramatically in the last two years, the reallocation of political power might not be as dramatic. Florida has been losing population and the growth in Texas has slowed.   

If only US citizens are counted then California would lose five seats and New York and Illinois one each.  Those seven seats would go to Indiana, Montana, North Carolina, Oregon, South Carolina, Texas and Utah.

The redistricting that would occur within the states would be affected also.  Counting only US citizens would increase the power of rural and suburban America which tend to be more conservative. If all residents are counted then the seat that New York would lose would be in upstate New York which has been traditionally Republican because New York City has grown faster than the rest of the state. However, the reverse would be true if only US citizens are counted.

This amendment has wrecked havoc with the Senate Justice Commerce Bill.  The Senate has been unable to invoke cloture to pass the bill because of the absence of Democratic Senator. It is anticipated that Senator Reid will try again sometime this week (Nov 1) to pass cloture.  Dr. Groves told the House census oversight subcommittee on October 21 that if Congress requires the Census Bureau to add new questions to the 2010 census, the enumeration would not start on time and the Census Bureau would not deliver apportionment and redistricting counts in accordance with current legal deadlines (by December 31, 2010, and April 1, 2011, respectively).

There are several organizations that are studying the issue of the size of the House of Representatives.  ApportionmentUSA.org has filed suit in Mississippi asking the courts to order the House to enlarge its size and Thirty Thousand blogs about the size of the House of Representatives on a regular basis.  PRC has held two workshops considering the implications of population growth and representation.

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