As the global food crisis intensifies, so will the debate over its origins. Several factors account for the emerging international food crisis, including rising energy prices, a drought in Australia, and the conversion of cropland to biomass production. More recently, hoarding of grains and financial speculation in grain commodity prices have exacerbated the rise in food commodity prices. But policymakers should not overlook the role that population growth and other demographic trends play in increasing the world's appetite for food.
A drop in oil prices or a good harvest in Australia might offer some short-term relief from skyrocketing food prices, but demographic trends are slow to change and likely to make high food prices a concern for years and possibly decades to come.
The World Bank reports that over the last forty years demand for food in developing countries has increased more than threefold. It also estimates that global food demand will double by 2030 as world population increases by an additional two billion people. It's not possible to grasp the implications of the current food crisis without understanding the demographic factors that underlie these trends in food consumption.
The first and most obvious demographic dimension to the food crisis is global population growth, which rose by 1.2 percent last year, increasing the number of people on the planet by over 70 million people. That's more than the population of France (61.7 million). Between 2007 and 2050, global population is projected to climb from 6.6 billion to 9.3 billion, an increase of 40 percent and roughly equivalent to the current populations of India and China combined.
The second demographic dimension is the population growth rate of the countries that are most vulnerable to food inflation. Many of the fastest growing countries in the world—including Niger, Somalia and the Democratic Republic of the Congo—are severely impacted by the food crisis. The UN's Farm and Agriculture Organization (FAO) maintains a list of "countries in crisis" that require external food assistance. In February, there were 36 nations on the list. The population of those countries is presently 1.1 billion. In just 17 years (2025), their projected population will reach 1.5 billion, and by 2050 an estimated 2.0 billion.
The third demographic trend is a rapidly growing middle class. The World Bank estimates that the size of the middle class in developing nations will triple by 2030, rising from 400 million in 2007 to 1.2 billion. Homi Kharas, a Brookings Institution scholar, earlier this year projected even faster growth. According to Kharas over half of the world (52%) will be middle class by 2020, compared to 30 percent today. China, according to his projections, will have the world's largest middle class and the size of India's middle class will be 10 times larger than today's.
A growing middle class is translating into a larger appetite for food. As incomes rise, diets tend to change. People tend to eat more meat, fruits and vegetables, and fewer grains. Consumption of meat, in particular, puts added stress on global food production. That's because, it takes 7-8 pounds of grain to produce a pound of beef and about 3-4 pounds of grain to produce a pound of pork.
In recent years, meat consumption has been increasing significantly faster than global population. Between 1991 and 2005 meat consumption rose at an annual rate of 6.2 percent a year in China, and 3.1 percent in seven other Southeast Asian nations. Globally, meat production is projected to double by 2020 due to increased incomes, population growth, and rising per capita global consumption of meat.
The forth demographic dimension is growing urbanization. This year, for the first time in history, half of the world's population lives in urban areas, including smaller cities and towns. An estimated 3.3 billion people now live in urban environments and by 2030 that number is expected to climb to 5 billion. The urban population of Africa and Asia will double between 2000 and 2030 and many of these urban dwellers will be poor.
The urban poor—because they are not growing their own food—are severely impacted by the spike in food prices. The World Food Programme and other international agencies warn that rising food prices will force many people to reduce their consumption of meat and other sources of protein, and that the poorest of the poor—those living on less than a dollar a day—will be forced to reduce their total caloric intake.
Understanding these four demographic challenges is essential to averting famine and losing ground in the battle against hunger and malnutrition. Robert Zoellick, president of the World Bank, estimates that the current food crisis has already pushed 100 million people deeper into poverty. If food and energy prices continue to rise, that number could climb sharply in the years ahead.
In the weeks and months ahead, the world may see some temporary relief from rising food commodity prices as speculation eases and higher food prices encourage farmers to expand production. Wheat prices are already in decline. Rice prices may soon follow. The real challenge, however, lies ahead. Can farmers, particularly in developing countries, overcome climate change, water scarcity, and rising production costs in time to meet the demands of a growing population and a rising middle class. That's the big question.
