When it comes to global security, population change matters.  While much of the world's attention is squarely focused on the ups and downs of the financial markets, many administrators, scholars and policymakers-particularly those concerned about peace and security-are increasingly concerned about demographic trends and their implications.
 
The September/October edition of World Watch, a publication of the Worldwatch Institute, focuses on population change.  One of the articles, "Population and Security," looks at range of demographic trends and their implications, including migration, rapid population growth in many developing nations, and youthful population age structures.

The World Watch article notes that:

Youthful population age structures have also been linked to outbreaks of civil instability.  One study found that countries in which youth make up 35 percent of the total adult population face a risk of conflict 150 percent greater than those in which the ratio is more balanced.  In 2000, youth made up 35 percent or more of the adult population in 44 countries, including many in sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East, and South Asia.

Earlier this year, General Michael Hayden, director of the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency, cited this population growth as one of three top destabilizing trends facing the world:
 

There are many poor, fragile states where governance is actually difficult today, where populations will grow rapidly: Afghanistan, Liberia, Niger, the Democratic Republic of the Congo. That group-the population is expected to triple by mid-century. The number of people in Ethiopia, Nigeria, and Yemen is likely to more than double. Furthermore-just beyond the raw numbers-all those countries will therefore have, as a result of this, a large concentration of young people. If their basic freedoms and basic needs-food, housing, education, employment-are not met, they could be easily attracted to violence, civil unrest, and extremism.

But in many developed countries, policymakers and analysts are concerned about falling birthrates, the costs of supporting a booming elderly population, and projected population decline.  The World Watch article notes that, "...42 percent of the world's people live in countries in which the average family size is below the number needed to maintain a stable population level."

This past week, an article ("Behind the Bluster, Russia is Collapsing") in the Washington Post, raised concern about one of those countries:  Russia.  The article warns that high mortality rates, along with low fertility rates, are contributing to a destabilizing collapse in Russian population.  Describing conditions in Russia as a "tragedy of huge proportions," the author cites UN data showing that:

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  • Three times as many Russians die from heart-related illnesses as do Americans or Europeans, per each 100,000 people.
  • Tuberculosis deaths in Russia are about triple the World Health Organization's definition of an epidemic, which is based on a new-case rate of 50 cases per 100,000 people.
  • Average alcohol consumption per capita is double the rate the WHO considers dangerous to one's health.
  • About 1 million people in Russia have been diagnosed with HIV or AIDS, according to WHO estimates.
  • Using mid-year figures, it's estimated that 25 percent more new HIV/AIDS cases will be recorded this year than were logged in 2007.

Certainly, demographic factors by themselves do not either cause or resolve violent conflict. Yet, in combination with other factors they can play a significant role in global security. Policymakers and policy administrators alike need to be better informed about all aspects of population change, including trends like migration and population distribution. 

In the weeks ahead, we will take a closer look at what policymakers, demographers and other scholars are saying about population change and its potential effect on failing, or potentially, failing states.