Americans are living longer, but will they be able to work longer?  That was an important question for policymakers before the precipitous drop in the stock market; it’s even more critical now. 

A new study (Are Older Men Healthy Enough to Work”) released this week by the Center for Retirement Research at Boston College sheds new light on that question, at least as it applies to men. And the study concludes that it depends.  If you are white and college-educated, the prospects look good for a slightly longer working life; not so good for other demographic groups.

Using data indicating that life expectancy for a 50-year old man increased from 23.2 years to 27.5 years between 1970 and 2000, the authors calculated a “disability-free life expectancy” using data on disability from the National Health Interview Survey, which is conducted by the U.S. National Center for Health Statistics.  Between 1970 and 2000, the disability-free life expectancy at age 50 increased by 2.7 years.  That’s good, but it’s less than the jump in life-expectancy (4.2 years) over that same period.

Then, taking into account the ratios of the mortality of each education-race group relative to the general population mortality, the researchers, led by Alicia H. Munnell, calculated a breakdown of the “disability-free life expectancy at age 50” according to education and race.

The results are rather startling.  While whites with a college degree showed a significant jump (19.2 years to 22.8 years) between 1970 and 2000, blacks did not fare as well.  For blacks with less than a high school degree, the “disability-free life expectancy” increased from 10.3 years to 11.4 years for the same period, while for blacks with a high school degree or more, it actually declined from 15.4 to 14.8 years.

The study found a similar disparity when adjusting only for education levels: men in the top quartile showed substantial improvement in “disability-free life expectancy at age 50,” with a jump from 17.8 to 22.8 years between 1970 and 2000, while for the lower quartile the number of year increased from 12.5 to 14.1 over that period.  The report notes:

Two important points emerge from this analysis. First, since relatively little improvement has occurred in disability-free life expectancy within individual race and educational groups, most of the overall improve¬ment has occurred because people have moved up the educational ladder. Second, enormous disparities exist in disability-free life expectancy between those in the bottom and the top quartiles of the population. Thus, people vary enormously in terms of their ability to continue working.

The report also cites various studies indicating that “improvements in the health of the older working-age population may not continue.”  While they acknowledge that a reduction in smoking may improve health outcomes, the authors express concern about the growing trend toward obesity. 

They warn that:  

These conclusions have implications for policy¬makers who may be seeking ways to encourage longer work lives, particularly in light of the current financial crisis. Physical limitations should not inhibit the bulk of older Americans from working at least until their mid-sixties. However, at least a quarter of the popu¬lation may find continued employment extremely difficult. And employment prospects are unlikely to improve given the plateauing of educational achieve-ment and the growing incidence of obesity.

This study will certainly not settle the question of whether men (and women) will be able to work longer and postpone retirement. That question is far too important to be settled by one study, but it raises some very important concerns about extending the retirement age for Social Security and private pensions.  It also raises equally serious questions about the continued disparities in life expectancy and health outcomes between blacks and whites and between educational attainment levels. 

More research and debate are needed.